Sep 13, 2025
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Analyst Claims 90% Chance Bitcoin Bottom Is Already Established
Bitcoin has rebounded from a low of $107,200, sparking debate about whether the market has reached its local bottom. Analyst Astronomer suggests a 90%+ probability that the bottom is in, using price structure and his “FOMC reversal confluence” framework as evidence.
Key Points
- Astronomer initially predicted a bearish trend from $123,000 to the $110,000–$111,000 zone, flipping long in late August as targets were met.
- He argues the Federal Reserve’s meeting cycle often marks Bitcoin trend reversals, occurring 0-6 bars before the event 90%+ of the time.
- The upcoming FOMC meeting on September 18 is anticipated to confirm the reversal from the $123,000 to $110,000 downtrend.
- Bitcoin’s rise to above $115,000 post-long entry at $110,000 led Astronomer to declare September's bearish outlook invalid.
- September opened at $108,299; currently at $115,000, indicating a positive month contrary to typical seasonal trends.
- Astronomer emphasizes multiple confluences supporting the bullish case, though he advises maintaining risk management discipline.
- Market watchers await the FOMC meeting for further confirmation of a sustained Bitcoin bottom formation.
With Bitcoin holding above $115,000 and the FOMC meeting approaching, the near-term outcome will reveal if a sustainable bottom has indeed formed.
