BULLISH 📈 : Analyst sees Bitcoin poised for rebound if recession averted

Bitcoin's recent decline may be influenced more by macroeconomic concerns than cryptocurrency-specific issues, according to André Dragosch of Bitwise. He suggests that Bitcoin is factoring in a potential US recession, and if this does not occur, a rebound could follow.

Macroeconomic Influences

Dragosch describes Bitcoin as driven mainly by macroeconomic factors, estimating that 90% of its performance is linked to economic growth expectations, global liquidity, and monetary policy.
Currently, Bitcoin may be diverging from these drivers, potentially due to a "quantum discount" related to the future need for quantum-resistant cryptography.
Bitcoin's underperformance compared to Bitcoin Cash might reflect market concerns over quantum risks.

Mispricing and Potential Opportunities

Bitcoin's sensitivity to macroeconomic changes is increasing, with current conditions creating significant mispricing.
The valuation implies a deep US recession; if this does not happen, it could present an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity for Bitcoin.
Positive macro signals include momentum in industrial commodities and favorable data from US ISM and global indicators like Germany’s Ifo survey.
The BTC-to-gold ratio suggests potential undervaluation.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is currently trading at $67,591, about 46% below its all-time high.