Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Pullback Before Potential Rise to $250,000
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom and former BitMEX CEO, released an essay titled “The Ugly,” predicting a potential near-term pullback for Bitcoin before reaching new highs. Key points include:
- Hayes suggests Bitcoin may fall to the $70,000 to $75,000 range before a rally to $250,000 by year-end.
- He expresses concern over current monetary conditions, drawing parallels to market instability prior to previous downturns.
- Maelstrom is net long while increasing USDe stablecoin holdings to repurchase Bitcoin if prices drop below $75,000.
- A 30% correction from current levels is possible, yet bullish momentum could continue if Bitcoin surpasses $110,000 with strong volume.
- Central banks are curbing money creation, which may impact speculative capital in stocks and cryptocurrencies.
- Rising US treasury yields (5%-6%) and potential Fed actions could lead to a bond market sell-off, affecting equities and Bitcoin.
- Political tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve may influence monetary policy responses during financial crises.
- Hayes notes a rising correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100, indicating Bitcoin's sensitivity to fiat liquidity changes.
- He emphasizes trading based on perceived probabilities rather than certainties, aiming to capitalize on significant pullbacks.
As of now, BTC trades at $102,530.
