Bettors Lose $28 Million on Papal Conclave Prediction via Polymarket
Bettors on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket inaccurately predicted the outcome of the recent papal conclave, favoring Cardinal Pietro Parolin with 28% odds over Robert Francis Prevost, who had only 1% odds. Over $28 million was wagered on candidates other than Prevost, leading to significant losses for bettors.
This event raises questions about the reliability of betting markets compared to traditional polls. Polymarket operates differently from conventional platforms; its odds reflect real-time user bets rather than being set by bookmakers.
Key points include:
- The unexpected win by Prevost contradicts previous accuracy claims of Polymarket.
- Historical data indicated Polymarket's predictions had a success rate of 90% in forecasting world events.
- The difficulty in predicting papal conclaves due to their rarity and complexity contributed to the inaccurate betting outcomes.
- Bettors may have relied on mainstream media and traditional betting odds rather than independent analysis.
- Domer, a Polymarket bettor, noted that real success lies in identifying overpriced candidates rather than picking winners.