Bitcoin Analyst Suggests $82,000 as Potential New Bottom Level

An analyst suggests that Bitcoin's current cycle bottom may not align with historical bear market patterns.

Bitcoin Bottoming Analysis

Alec Dejanovic from Checkonchain discusses Bitcoin pricing models, focusing on the "Realized Price," which tracks the cost basis of average investors.
Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have found their bottoms around the Realized Price. In past cycles like 2015, 2018, and 2022, as well as during the COVID crash, the spot price dropped below this level.
The Realized Price currently stands at $56,000. Dejanovic argues that due to factors like resilient ETF flows and absence of major frauds like FTX, this target might be excessive.
Dejanovic introduces the "True Mean Price" as another model, representing active market participants' cost basis. It is currently valued at $82,000, near Bitcoin's recent low.
This metric could offer a more accurate network situation, considering lost BTC supply due to inaccessible wallets.

Bitcoin has experienced a sharp increase, with its price rising above $90,000 recently.