Dec 31, 2025
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Bitcoin May Enter Bear Market If 2025 Closes in Red, Analyst Says
Bitcoin's performance in 2025 has seen a significant pullback after reaching an all-time high in October, putting its annual performance at risk of closing negative. This development raises questions about Bitcoin's price outlook and the current cycle interpretation.
A Red Close Indicates a Bear Market
- Historically, Bitcoin's cycles have shown three consecutive green yearly candles followed by a red close.
- Despite 2023 and 2024 closing positively, 2025 may finish negative, suggesting a shift to a bear market rather than breaking the four-year cycle.
- Analyst CryptoBullet highlights that the crucial aspect is Bitcoin's cycle highs and lows, not necessarily the color of the yearly candle.
- If 2025 closes red, a doji candlestick might form, indicating possible indecision and trend reversal.
- The October peak of $126,080 marks a cycle top, typically followed by a corrective phase.
Outlook for Bitcoin in 2026
- CryptoBullet maintains that the cycle top is already reached, drawing parallels with 2019's post-top consolidation.
- Bitcoin's 2025 opening was $93,396 but has since declined significantly from its October peak.
- Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin for nearly four years; however, they might see some recovery.
- A dead cat bounce is expected in early 2026, with a temporary rotation into altcoins before a deeper correction occurs.
