Bitcoin Struggles Below $90K Amid Gold Rotation Speculation
Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $90,000 level, facing resistance below this psychological barrier. Despite brief relief rallies, a lack of sustained momentum raises concerns about a potential bear market transition. Analysts note growing caution in derivatives and spot markets as risk appetite diminishes.
A report by Darkfost revisits the idea of capital rotation from gold into Bitcoin. Gold's price hitting new highs above $4,420 per ounce has revived this narrative, though empirical evidence for such a shift remains weak. The report suggests Bitcoin's market structure is vulnerable, affected by macro-narratives rather than a clear gold-to-Bitcoin capital flow.
Gold-to-Bitcoin Rotation Analysis
Darkfost explores the popular but unproven theory of capital moving from gold to Bitcoin, using a comparative framework without assuming causality. Positive signals occur when Bitcoin trades above its 180-day moving average while gold is below its own. Negative signals arise when both trade below their averages, indicating a broader risk-off environment. Historical analysis shows inconsistent outcomes, challenging the simplicity of the narrative.
Price Challenges Below Key Averages
Bitcoin attempts stabilization post-correction but remains fragile. Trading below $90,000, it faces resistance after previous support flipped. Short-term buying interest hasn't changed the overall bearish structure since October highs. BTC is under its 50-3D moving average, signaling weakening momentum. Failure to reclaim this average suggests corrections rather than impulsive moves.
- The 100-3D moving average offers interim support around $85,000–$86,000.
- Losing this support could lead to a deeper retracement toward the 200-3D moving average near the low $80,000s.
- Recent rebounds lack volume, indicating weak buyer conviction.
- Consolidation with lower highs and compressed volatility suggests a pause, not a reversal.
- Reclaiming $90,000 and the declining 50-3D moving average is crucial for bulls to negate bearish trends.