Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand Declines, Signaling Potential Bear Market

Key Insights on Bitcoin Demand and Cycles

  • According to CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno, Bitcoin cycles should be defined by demand rather than price.
  • The "Apparent Demand" indicator is used to measure this demand, comparing daily miner issuance with changes in 1-year dormant supply.
  • Recent trends show the 30-day Apparent Demand has turned negative, indicating a drop in monthly demand.
  • The 1-year Apparent Demand remains positive but is declining, suggesting potential future bearish trends if it turns negative.
  • Past cycles have often entered bear markets when both monthly and yearly Apparent Demand became negative.
  • Despite on-chain activity, off-chain demand through Bitcoin ETFs also shows muted demand, with recent netflows remaining negative.

Current Status of Bitcoin Price

  • Bitcoin is currently consolidating around the $88,000 level.