Bitcoin Liquidity Setup Signals Potential for Big Move

Bitcoin's Current Market Setup

  • Bitcoin trades at approximately $104,500, a 0.5% decrease over the past day.
  • Recent price action saw a decline to near $103,400, briefly touching $102,850.

Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR)

  • SSR has dropped into the 13 range, historically aligning with market lows in mid-2021 and multiple times in 2024.
  • This drop suggests potential liquidity buildup, hinting at possible buying after a period of low volatility.

Binance Reserve Trends

  • On Binance, stablecoin balances are increasing while Bitcoin reserves are decreasing.
  • This pattern indicates capital on the sidelines, with holders moving coins off exchanges for longer-term storage.

Market Trends

Market Conditions and Risks

  • The trading environment is cautious despite positive macroeconomic news from the US.
  • Some capital has rotated back to stocks, with large holders taking profits post-recent highs.
  • Moreno warns that if current liquidity metrics fail, it could signal a deeper market reset.

Outlook and Potential Scenarios

  • Moreno sees limited downside risk with potential upside due to stablecoin supply and falling exchange BTC reserves.
  • Historically, Bitcoin often gains in the last three months of the year, though past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
  • Current indicators suggest potential for fresh buying to push prices higher if sentiment improves.
  • A break below current levels could alter market dynamics, requiring participants to reassess positions.

Image from Gemini, chart from TradingView