Bitcoin Rises 37.3% in November as Market Anticipates December Developments
November was an eventful month for crypto, largely influenced by Donald Trump’s election win.
Bitcoin increased 37.3% in November, marking its best performance for the month since 2020 when it gained 43%. CoinGlass data indicates that November typically has the highest average BTC returns at 46%.
Historically, December is less favorable for BTC, averaging +4.9% returns. In December 2020, Bitcoin rose by 47%, but from 2021 to 2023, returns were -18.9%, -3.6%, and +12.2% respectively.
Bitcoin has struggled to surpass the $100,000 level, attributed to profit-taking by investors and resistance from put options as traders hedge against declines. As of 2 PM ET, BTC was trading around $95,650, down 1.6% from the previous day.
Jeff Embry, managing director of Globe 3 Capital, anticipates a continuation of strong crypto demand driven by US regulatory support for innovators and investors. He noted an eight-month consolidation period for BTC and ETH prior to the election served as a catalyst for market growth.
Globe 3 Capital predicts an end-of-year BTC price of $124,000. Some analysts suggest $80,000 could serve as a support level during any downturns. Demand is observed across retail, high-net-worth individuals, institutions, and governments.
In November, notable purchases included MicroStrategy acquiring 15,400 bitcoins for approximately $1.5 billion. Marathon Digital plans to offer $700 million in convertible senior notes primarily to purchase more BTC.
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor proposed that Microsoft should hold BTC on its balance sheet, which will be discussed in the tech giant’s Dec. 10 shareholder meeting despite board recommendations against it.
The Federal Reserve's rate decision on Dec. 18 is anticipated, with Polymarket odds indicating a 67% chance of a 25-basis point decrease, which historically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin.
There is ongoing speculation regarding a potential US strategic bitcoin reserve. Analysts from Compass Point Research & Trading view the BITCOIN Act proposed by Sen. Cynthia Lummis as having less than a 10% chance of becoming law due to congressional priorities.
Despite challenges, the crypto narratives are expected to gain momentum as winter approaches.