CoinDesk
2 October 2025
4 0

Bitcoin Surges Amid 99% Fed Rate Cut Odds and Market Stability

Crypto Market Overview

  • Bitcoin increased by 2.15% to $118,700 due to weaker U.S. labor data and potential Fed rate cuts.
  • CoinDesk 20 index rose by 2.33% amid uncertainty in traditional markets.
  • ADP reported a 32,000 job decrease in September, contrary to forecasts of a 50,000 gain.
  • Polymarket shows a 91% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut; CME FedWatch tool indicates 99% odds.
  • Open interest in derivatives markets increased by 4% to $216 billion.
  • Spot crypto ETFs net inflows surpassed $2.3 billion since the week's start.

Key Events & Governance Votes

  • ENS DAO: Voting to reimburse eth.limo team 109,818.82 USDC for legal fees (Ends Oct. 2).
  • Arbitrum DAO: Voting on transferring 8,500 ETH to earn yield and support ecosystem (Ends Oct. 2).
  • Gitcoin DAO: Re-vote on revised $1,175,000 matching fund for Grants Round 24 (Ends Oct. 2).

Token Launches & Unlocks

  • Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.62% of circulating supply worth $23.65 million on Oct. 2.
  • DoubleZero (2Z) to be listed on major exchanges like Binance Alpha, Coinone, Kraken on Oct. 2.

Derivatives Positioning

  • BTC futures market shows bullish trend with open interest reaching $32.6 billion.
  • BTC options indicate mixed sentiment; put/call volume favors calls at over 56%.
  • BTC funding rate on major exchanges between 9%-10%, with Deribit spiking to over 60%.

Market Movements

  • BTC up 1.12% to $118,927.57, ETH up 1.27% to $4,392.20.
  • DXY down 0.18% to 97.53; Gold futures up 0.12% to $3,902.00.
  • Nikkei 225 up 0.87%, Hang Seng up 1.61%.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): +2.57% to $346.17, pre-market +2% at $353.11.
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): +5.97% to $35.83, pre-market +2.99% at $36.90.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $675.8 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $58.4 billion

While You Were Sleeping