Bitcoin’s Probability of Dropping to $75,000 Rises to 22%
Bitcoin's on-chain options market indicates a 22% probability of prices falling to $75,000 by March 28, up from 10% last week.
Key factors influencing this shift include:
- A renewed import tariff war between the U.S. and major trading partners, which may increase inflation.
- Concerns that tariffs, including 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% on Chinese goods, will impact investor sentiment in crypto markets.
- Bitcoin has dropped 11% to $93,700 over four days; ETH also declined below $2,200.
- Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin may be forming a double top reversal pattern, indicating a potential price drop.
- Analysts predict Bitcoin could fall to around $75,000 before entering a larger bull run.
Despite short-term bearish signals, the long-term outlook remains positive due to:
- Active spot ETF filings for various cryptocurrencies from firms like Bitwise and Grayscale.
- Potential SEC approvals could enhance legitimacy and attract more capital into the market.
- Expectations that the Fed may intervene to stabilize asset prices by reinstating quantitative easing.
Traders and investors should monitor these developments closely for potential impacts on market trends.