19 February 2025
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Analyst Indicates Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Shows Untapped Potential
Bitcoin is currently priced around $97,000, experiencing a 3% decline over the past two weeks while remaining in a consolidation phase after reaching an all-time high above $109,000 in January.
Key points on Bitcoin's market dynamics include:
- Ongoing discussions about the halving cycle and its potential impact on future price movements.
- CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen reports a 63% price increase since the last halving in April 2024, contrasting with a 686% surge during the 2020-2021 cycle.
- The principle of diminishing returns suggests subdued gains, but current modest appreciation indicates the halving cycle may still be ongoing, allowing for upside potential.
- Strategy has recently increased its Bitcoin holdings by 7,633 BTC, totaling approximately 478,740 BTC, signaling strong institutional demand.
- Institutional buying trends historically align with positive price movements, suggesting continued acquisitions may support Bitcoin's spot price.
- Short-term challenges could arise from factors like the "sell in May" effect, but stronger performance is anticipated in the fourth quarter based on historical patterns.
- Potential for a significant correction exists if macroeconomic changes alter market dynamics.
The current halving cycle appears incomplete, with moderate gains since April 2024 indicating uncapitalized market opportunities. The relationship between reduced supply and sustained demand may lead to upward price movements amid ongoing volatility.