Bitcoin’s Actual Supply Lower Than Expected Post-Halving Analysis
Bitcoin has regained ground, trading above $93,000 and currently priced at $94,014. This reflects a 5% increase in 24 hours and over 20% in two weeks after dropping to $74,000 earlier this month.
Post-Halving Emission Rates Deviate From Theoretical Output
Carmelo Alemán from CryptoQuant provided insights into Bitcoin's mining dynamics post-Halving. Key points include:
- Bitcoin's block schedule indicates one block mined every 10 minutes.
- Post-April Halving, the block reward decreased from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
- This should lead to about 450 BTC entering circulation daily (3.125 BTC × 144 blocks).
- Alemán found actual newly mined coins often fall below this theoretical estimate.
Discrepancies may arise from slower block times, network difficulty adjustments, or congestion within the mining ecosystem.
Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics Offer Real-Time Supply Monitoring
Alemán's findings highlight the importance of on-chain metrics for understanding Bitcoin supply dynamics. Key implications are:
- On-chain metrics provide real-time views of blockchain activity, enhancing market models.
- The halving event aims to limit inflation and maintain a fixed supply cap.
- Monitoring actual supply growth influences supply-demand calculations and miner profitability.
