Sep 22, 2025
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Bitcoin Lags Behind Markets Despite Macro Risk Surge, Analyst Explains
Bitcoin is currently lagging behind macroeconomic trends, with the market displaying signs of being late-cycle and emotionally strained. Despite this, there is optimism that the market is approaching a euphoric stage of the bull cycle.
Key Points
- Bitcoin's current stagnation is attributed to sentiment reflexivity, with negative sentiments on Crypto-Twitter creating a feedback loop.
- The Fear & Greed Index does not show extreme greed levels, indicating a lack of classic euphoria seen before market tops.
- Macro correlations suggest Bitcoin is lagging rather than diverging, with the M2 money supply rising significantly in recent months.
- Gold's rise suggests Bitcoin could move towards $135,000 from its current level of around $115,000.
- Market microstructure indicates significant liquidity build-up, hinting at potential explosive breakouts for Bitcoin.
Altcoin Market Insights
- Altcoins are showing strong momentum, with Total2 and Total3 indices reaching new highs.
- Wyckoff accumulation patterns and ascending triangle formations suggest further growth potential for altcoins.
- Bitcoin dominance is projected to decrease, potentially leading to a significant altcoin rally.
Technical Analysis
- Key price zone for Bitcoin is between $111,000 and $115,000; losing this range could push the price to $105,000.
- USDT dominance suggests room for risk-taking before stablecoin dominance rises again.
- A possible short-term scenario involves Bitcoin hitting $120,000, triggering liquidation, then dropping to the low $100,000 range.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin is trading at $112,712.
