Cardano Faces ETF Speculation and Analyst Warnings Amid Price Concerns
Cardano (ADA) is trading between $0.78 and $0.80, facing resistance at $0.83–$0.85, where key EMAs converge. Prediction markets give a 91%–95% chance of a U.S. Cardano spot ETF approval by late October 2025.
- The narrative stabilizes sentiment post-September decline, with expectations of institutional access increasing liquidity and demand similar to BTC and ETH ETFs.
- Options activity is low; recent liquidations indicate trader caution without a clear breakout.
- If ADA surpasses $0.85, potential targets are $0.87 and $0.90.
Key Levels
- Support: Immediate at $0.78, deeper at $0.75 and $0.71; $0.68 as last defense.
- Trend: Momentum improved but Parabolic SAR still above price; trend not fully flipped.
- Macro Factors: Tighter financial conditions or Bitcoin retrace could limit ADA's rise despite strong ETF prospects.
The 2026 Bear Case
- Strategists warn ADA could drop below $0.30 in 2026 without significant usage growth.
- Despite research-driven upgrades and reliability, slow app adoption and capital shifts to newer ecosystems pose risks.
- Tightening global liquidity or underperforming ETFs could push ADA to value zones below $0.30, attracting long-term buyers.
In the short term, monitor $0.83–$0.85 for trend reversal and $0.78/$0.75 on the downside. The ETF catalyst is crucial, but actual demand must materialize to avoid the risk of a sub-$0.30 scenario by 2026.