Government Shutdown Threatens Cardano ETF Approval by 2025
- The SEC has approved "generic listing standards" to expedite altcoin ETFs, eliminating the need for 19b-4 filings.
- Traders estimate a 90% probability of an ADA ETF approval by the end of 2025. However, potential government shutdown could delay this process.
- Polymarket indicates a 36% likelihood of a prolonged government shutdown, which could impede ETF approvals.
- The SEC's contingency plan allows filings via EDGAR but lacks staff to review or expedite them.
- Only 390 out of 4,200 SEC employees are active during shutdowns, focusing on emergencies rather than new approvals.
- There are currently 89 pending crypto ETF applications alongside traditional finance products awaiting SEC review.
- Polymarket estimates federal operations may resume by late October or early November.
- There's a 31% chance the shutdown extends into November, risking further delays in ETF approvals.
- The ADA ETF faces uncertain approval timelines due to potential extended shutdown and existing backlog at the SEC.
