H.C. Wainwright Projects Bitcoin Price Target of $225,000 by 2025
H.C. Wainwright & Co., a historic US investment bank established in 1868, has revised its Bitcoin price target for the end of 2025 from $145,000 to $225,000. This projection is based on historical trends, macroeconomic indicators, and evolving regulatory factors.
Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Potential Growth
The firm identifies key catalysts for Bitcoin's price increase, including the anticipated broader availability of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, which could attract institutional capital. Additionally, increasing adoption by institutional investors and corporations contributes to this positive outlook.
H.C. Wainwright's analysis assumes an improving market environment alongside global liquidity recovery and diminishing regulatory pressures. The forecast is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, particularly the M2 money supply, which has been declining since October.
Despite the optimistic price target, H.C. Wainwright warns that Bitcoin’s journey toward $225,000 may include volatility, projecting potential drawdowns of 20-30% during bull markets. They estimate Bitcoin could retrace to the mid-$70,000 range in early Q1 2025 before continuing its upward trend, attributing these fluctuations to Bitcoin's historical volatility and its relationship with global liquidity.
If Bitcoin reaches $225,000, H.C. Wainwright estimates its total market capitalization could reach approximately $4.5 trillion, representing about 25% of gold's current market cap of $18 trillion, equating to a 113% increase from current levels. The note also suggests that if the US government officially adopts BTC as a treasury reserve asset, prices could exceed this target significantly.
The analysis extends to the wider cryptocurrency market, noting that Bitcoin's dominance typically decreases during market peaks. The firm anticipates Bitcoin's dominance will fall to 45% by the end of 2025, down from around 56% currently, predicting the total crypto market could grow from $3.6 trillion today to approximately $10 trillion by the end of 2025.
H.C. Wainwright's coverage of publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies is expected to benefit from the projected price increase, with potential upward revisions in company estimates over the next year.
At press time, BTC traded at $96,221.
