Arthur Hayes Projects 126x Upside Potential for Hyperliquid’s HYPE Token
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, presented a valuation case for Hyperliquid's HYPE token at Tokyo’s WebX 2025. His family office, Maelstrom, projects a potential upside of 126x based on an expanding stablecoin economy.
Key Points from Hayes' Presentation
- Hypothesis: Stablecoin growth could increase annualized fees to $258 billion.
- Assumptions include a 0.03% net trading fee and a 5% discount rate.
- Projected terminal value of HYPE revenues is $5.161 trillion compared to a current fully diluted valuation of approximately $41.05 billion.
- Recent metrics show Hyperliquid's open positions reached 196,462, with open interest exceeding $15 billion and total wallet equity peaking near $31 billion.
- Redstone research indicates Hyperliquid has captured over 75% of the decentralized perpetual exchange market within two years.
- Hayes’ model hinges on stablecoin supply reaching $10 trillion by 2028 and Hyperliquid capturing 26.4% of average daily volume.
- On August 15, Hayes increased his investments in HYPE, LDO, and ENA, totaling about $15.9 million.
- The exchange allows leveraged trading without expiry and operates on its own Layer 1 blockchain.
As of the latest report, HYPE traded at $45.84.
