Prediction Markets Show 78% Chance for Liberal Party’s Mark Carney to Win
Political bettors are closely monitoring Canada’s upcoming elections. Current prediction markets show:
- Mark Carney of the Liberal Party has a 78% chance of winning.
- Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has a 22% chance.
A poll aggregator estimates Carney's chances at 89%. Myriad Markets presents similar odds to Polymarket. FanDuel initially favored Poilievre with a 70% lead, but now aligns with other platforms, giving Carney an 80% winning probability.
Concerns exist regarding potential market manipulation on Polymarket, echoing previous U.S. election critiques. Critics believe Poilievre's true chances are underestimated. However, no substantial evidence supports claims of manipulation.
Market data indicates high engagement in the Canadian election contract, with diverse position holdings. A significant bettor expressed confidence in Carney's win based on reliable polling data.
The largest recorded profit from the contract is $124,890 from bets on Carney, while the largest loss is over $98,000 from bets against him.
