Marvin Minsky Moment in AI Development Highlights Significant Advances
Markets showed resilience despite concerns over potential economic downturns linked to tariffs and trade relations with China. Key points include:
- The Nasdaq index is 1.4% from pre-tariff levels, indicating limited immediate impact.
- President Trump expressed willingness to reconsider tariffs after retailer warnings about supply shortages.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent mentioned opportunities for significant trade deals with China.
- China clarified that trade talks have not yet commenced.
- AI advancements are gaining attention, overshadowing tariff discussions, with notable earnings reported by Alphabet attributed to AI improvements.
- Predictions regarding a US recession vary widely, with Polymarket odds remaining at 55% and Bank of America estimating 35% likelihood.
- IMF forecasts indicate a worsening supply shock for the US compared to demand shocks in China.
- South Korean exports to the US fell by 14%, signaling potential global GDP implications.
Overall, while investor sentiment fluctuates, the focus may be shifting towards technological advancements in AI as a crucial market driver.