Moonrock Capital Predicts 75% Chance Crypto Reaches Early-Majority Phase

Moonrock Capital's Simon Dedic predicts a shift for the crypto market from early adopters to mainstream, with a 75% probability of entering the early-majority phase next year. This transition would mark the end of the classic 4-year cycles, leading to a market driven by macroeconomic factors and industry fundamentals.

Dedic uses the technology adoption curve to describe this transition, highlighting the gap between early adopters and an early majority demanding complete solutions.
A 20% chance exists that the industry is still in the early-adopter phase, which could lead to a prolonged bear market lasting 1-3 years before reaching mainstream adoption.
A 5% risk remains that crypto fails to achieve mainstream product-market fit, becoming a zero-sum game.

Dedic is optimistic, citing regulatory support, institutional adoption, and strong industry fundamentals as indicators of imminent widespread adoption. He stresses the need for market maturation, moving beyond simple narratives and cyclical patterns.

As of now, the total crypto market cap is $3.15 trillion.