Economic Indicators Suggest Possible Start of New Business Cycle

Since COVID-19, assessing the business cycle has become challenging. Key observations include:

In 2022, negative real GDP prints occurred alongside a strong labor market.
The Federal Reserve implemented significant rate hikes without causing a recession on an aggregate level.
While stocks reached new highs and the labor market remained resilient, the manufacturing sector showed signs of recession, with ISM Manufacturing PMIs in contraction.
Disinflation and deflation were noted in the goods sector.
Current indicators suggest the manufacturing sector may be recovering, with commodities showing signs of growth.
Optimism in the business sector has increased following recent political developments.

Overall, there are indications that we may be entering a new business cycle, supported by fiscal stimulus and deficits from previous years.