Polymarket Predicts Events with 90% Accuracy, Study Finds
Research by Alex McCullough indicates that Polymarket can predict events with nearly 90% accuracy. Key points include:
- Study excluded markets with probabilities above 90% or below 10% after outcomes became known.
- Polymarket tends to overestimate event probabilities due to biases like herd mentality and low liquidity.
- Longer-term markets exhibit more accuracy as they include clearly unlikely outcomes.
- Head-to-head sports markets show clearer predictive accuracy, with improvements as events unfold.
- Polymarket has seen nearly $4.5 billion in volume for sports events like the NBA and MLB.
- Current predictions suggest Mark Carney leads Pierre Poilievre for the Canadian Prime Minister position, surpassing poll aggregators' estimates.
