Polymarket Faces Scrutiny After Whale Sells Over $3 Million in Trump Bets
The US election betting market on Polymarket, valued over a billion dollars, faces scrutiny regarding the accuracy of its odds. A significant player, known as "larpas," recently liquidated over $3 million in bets favoring Donald Trump’s victory, impacting the platform’s odds. This sell-off occurred after crypto trader Giant-Cassocked Rebirth (GCR) indicated potential flaws in the prediction markets, suggesting they may overestimate right-wing candidates' chances.
New data from Arkham Intelligence indicates that larpas's liquidation of pro-Trump bets influenced Polymarket’s odds close to election day. This action followed GCR’s claims of having manipulated Polymarket’s odds by identifying market biases favoring right-wing candidates. GCR has been previously linked to pro-Trump meme coin trading.
In 2021, GCR noted that prediction markets tended to skew toward right-wing outcomes and predicted that Republican nominee odds would rise, making Trump a valuable bet when odds were low. He profited from shifts in Trump’s odds, stating he captured “the meat of the move.” He also advised against leverage and risky bets.
The ongoing 2024 election has generated substantial volumes on Polymarket, establishing it as a central hub for political betting. Robinhood has integrated election betting as the race approaches its conclusion, reflecting strong betting interest. As the US electorate engages more with crypto, digital assets are increasingly present in election betting.
Despite the excitement around prediction markets, recent research indicates Trump’s odds on Polymarket may be inflated, with approximately 30% of pro-Trump trades considered false. Accounts like larpas could be elevating these odds further. With the election nearing, additional traders may look to profit by exploiting prediction market biases, following GCR’s example.