Polymarket and UMA Communities Dispute $7 Million Bet Resolution
A $7 million bet on prediction platform Polymarket has caused controversy between the Polymarket and UMA communities.
- The bet speculated on a mineral deal between Ukraine and U.S. President Donald Trump, with the "yes" probability rising from 9% to 100% in two days.
- Polymarket utilizes UMA's optimistic oracle system for outcome resolutions, allowing anyone to propose a resolution by staking a $750 USDC.e bond.
- The recent outcome was resolved as "yes," leading to suspicions of manipulation by a major UMA token holder.
- Polymarket acknowledged that the resolution was premature but did not classify it as a market failure requiring refunds.
- The company is seeking community input on preventing similar issues in the future and promises clearer rules and updates.