Polymarket Predicts 82% Chance of Trudeau Resigning by January 10
Bettors on Polymarket predict Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will resign by the end of this week, with local media suggesting an earlier departure. Current odds indicate an 82% likelihood of him leaving office by January 10, a 72% chance by January 8, and a 26% probability for today, January 6.
Trudeau Faces Declining Approval Amid Conservative Surge
The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail report that Trudeau could resign between January 6 and 8, with The Globe and Mail indicating it may occur before the national caucus meeting on Wednesday. However, most bettors favor January 10 for his resignation.
This potential resignation coincides with declining approval ratings for Trudeau and his party, while Conservatives are projected to secure a parliamentary majority. His departure would leave the Liberals without a permanent leader amid expectations of significant losses to the opposition.
Trudeau Stays Focused Amid Criticism and Resignation Rumors
<p.Trudeau has faced ongoing criticism, including comments from US President Donald Trump, who referred to him as the Governor of the “Great State of Canada.” Trump expressed anticipation for future discussions on tariffs and trade via his Truth account.
“I look forward to seeing the Governor again soon so that we may continue our in depth talks on Tariffs and Trade, the results of which will be truly spectacular for all!”
Despite the rumors, Trudeau remains focused on governance. He highlighted a reduction in child care fees for nearly a million Canadian families through a national program, emphasizing continued efforts to lower costs.
“A big win from 2024: Nearly a million Canadian families saw their child care fees come down. Parents saved thousands of dollars, thanks to our national child care program. In 2025, we’re going to keep bringing those costs down. Let’s go,” Trudeau stated.
In December, he announced a temporary tax exemption on certain items, including prepared foods and restaurant meals, for the next two months, benefiting Canadians financially.
Polymarket gained attention last year for political forecasting linked to the US General Elections, generating over $9 billion in trading volume across various contracts. This growth attracted the FBI's attention and led to a DOJ inquiry into potential US user involvement, focusing on Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.