Trump’s Announcement Sparks 23% Chance for U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Creation
President Donald Trump announced plans to establish a U.S. bitcoin reserve via a post on Truth Social. Polymarket traders estimate a 23% chance that this reserve will be created within the first 100 days of his presidency, by April 30, 2025.
- The U.S. government must hold bitcoin by April 29, 2025, for the contract to resolve positively.
- Odds of creating a reserve rose from 11% to 23% after Trump's announcement.
- A separate contract predicting a reserve by the end of 2025 has a 65% chance of success.
- Initially, Trump's post mentioned XRP and SOL before clarifying that BTC and ETH would also be included in the reserve.
Trader Theo5 has reportedly made a $40,000 profit betting against the creation of the reserve. In contrast, another trader known as Polywog lost $73,000 on a positive bet regarding the reserve and over $560,000 on the 2025 election outcome.