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May 1, 2025
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US Economic Data Releases Show Mixed Signals This Week

This week featured significant economic data releases impacting market outlook.

JOLTS Report

    <li Job openings decreased, reversing previous positive trends

    <li Quits rate increased, indicating greater confidence in job transitions

    <li Upcoming jobs report will clarify labor market direction, crucial for Federal Reserve decisions

GDP Print

    <li Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter

    <li Decline primarily due to a rise in imports affecting net exports

    <li Consumption remained stable and investment surged

    <li Tariffs may distort economic perceptions by encouraging preemptive purchases

Core PCE Print

    <li Core Personal Consumption Expenditures showed 0% month-over-month growth, below the expected 0.1%

    <li Inflation could be decreasing if not influenced by tariff-related pressures

ISM Survey

    <li ISM Manufacturing PMI indicates strong manufacturing activity amid tariff impacts

    <li Prices-paid component is rising, suggesting inflationary pressures that could hinder expected Fed rate cuts