XRP Spot ETF Approval Odds Rise to 83% Amid SEC Delays

Investor optimism for a spot XRP ETF has increased significantly, with Polymarket indicating an 83% chance of approval. This rise occurs despite ongoing delays from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Analysts suggest the SEC is utilizing its full review period.

Analyst Predictions And Timeline

SEC typically takes 240 days to evaluate 19b-4 filings.
Extra 45 days requested on May 20 for Bitwise’s Ether staking change.
Most spot ETF applications have final deadlines in October, making summer approvals unlikely.

Spot Versus Futures Products

Chicago Mercantile Exchange launched an XRP futures contract on May 19.
Volatility Shares listed the XRPI futures ETF on Nasdaq shortly after.
Tectrium introduced a 2x Long Daily XRP ETF for leveraged trading.
These products indicate increasing interest among institutional investors.

Institutional Access Through ETFs

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse discussed ETFs in a podcast, emphasizing their importance for institutional investment.
The Bitcoin ETF reached $1 billion in assets quickly, setting a precedent for XRP-related products.

Market Outlook And Caution

SEC delays are common; decisions on Grayscale’s XRP tracking fund and Solana ETF have also been postponed.
Prediction market odds can fluctuate dramatically based on SEC actions or new inquiries.
Investors should monitor upcoming SEC deadlines closely.

While enthusiasm for an XRP spot ETF is notable, history indicates slow regulatory processes. Current futures ETFs provide access to XRP markets but come with specific risks. Institutions and retail traders will remain attentive to SEC developments.