XRP Exchange Balances Drop 57%, Analyst Predicts Possible $5 Price Breakout

**XRP Market Analysis**

XRP has returned to early-year levels, trading near $1.90 despite initial gains.
On-chain data shows XRP exchange balances have reduced from 4 billion to 1.5 billion tokens by late December, marking a 57% decline.
CryptoQuant data indicates declining XRP reserves on major exchanges like Binance, with increased accumulation in institutional custody accounts.
This decrease in exchange availability may boost buying pressure, potentially increasing prices by 10% to 15% within days.
Approximately $1.37 billion in XRP ETF inflows recorded since November 2025 could drive a price breakout towards $4-$5.

Price Scenarios for XRP

**Bullish Scenario**: Prices could hit $4-$5 if monthly ETF inflows reach $300-$500 million and exchange balances drop below 1.5 billion tokens.
**Neutral Outcome**: Trading between $2.50 and $3.50 assumes ETF inflows slow to $50-$70 million weekly, with steady balance declines.
**Bearish Case**: If exchange supplies refill or ETF demand slows, XRP might fall below $2.00, possibly revisiting $1.60 during risk periods.

XRP

Currently, XRP trades at $1.94, down 4% over seven days and 8% over fourteen days, standing 46% below its all-time high of $3.64 from July last year.