XRP Fractal Indicates Possible 45% Price Drop Amid Market Uncertainty
XRP's legal victory over the SEC has eliminated a significant regulatory barrier, increasing optimism for institutional adoption and a possible spot XRP ETF. Daily trading volumes surged 208% to $12.4 billion post-settlement, with analysts predicting a 95% likelihood of ETF approval by October 2025.
Despite this optimism, XRP’s price decreased by 4%, from $3.19 to $3.13, in the 24 hours ending August 12, following an intraday peak of $3.32. Heavy selling, totaling 73.87 million in volume at 19:00, indicates large holders locking in profits. Support remains at $3.12, while resistance is firm between $3.27 and $3.32.
Bearish Fractal Signals Potential 45% Drop
Technical analysis shows a bearish divergence on XRP's two-week chart, where price reaches higher highs but the RSI shows lower highs. This pattern resembles conditions seen before the 2017-2018 market downturn. A similar drop could push XRP towards its 50-period exponential moving average near $1.64, indicating a potential 45% decline from current levels. Interim support may form around $1.90-$2.00.
This correction might not end the overall bull market but could impact overleveraged traders and reset sentiment for a more sustainable uptrend.
Bulls' Perspective on XRP Setup
Bulls argue for a different scenario, as XRP tests the $3.55 resistance level from the 2018 rally and has broken out of a multi-year symmetrical triangle. Clearing this resistance with strong volume could lead to targets of $4.41 and $5.68, especially if an XRP ETF is approved and whales move from distribution to accumulation.
Ripple’s initiatives in infrastructure, CBDC partnerships, and real-world asset tokenization could support demand despite potential short-term volatility.
Macroeconomic factors, whale selling patterns, and technical resistance continue to pose challenges. XRP is at a critical juncture, either confirming the bearish fractal or breaking through resistance to maintain momentum from the SEC ruling.