Jan 6, 2026
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Alt/BTC MACD Turns Bullish After 22 Months, Signals Possible Altcoin Season
The Altcoin-to-Bitcoin ratio (OTHERS/BTC) may be forming a significant bottom in Q4 2025, as observed by market analysts. This pattern has previously occurred twice, leading to substantial altcoin gains.
- In Q4 2016 and Q4 2020, OTHERS/BTC bottomed, followed by strong altcoin performance against Bitcoin.
- The monthly MACD on OTHERS/BTC has turned bullish for the first time since March 2024, suggesting potential altcoin rally if Bitcoin remains stable.
- Current conditions show a prolonged pullback of nearly four years, with RSI at historic lows and extreme selling pressure.
- Bull Theory highlights that previous altcoin cycles began following risk appetite shifts, such as the Russell 2000 breakout before past alt surges.
- This cycle, although delayed, is supported by improved liquidity and risk-on signals from equities.
- For an alt season to materialize, Bitcoin must close above its 6-12 month holder cost basis, currently around $100,000.
The alignment of improving liquidity, equity strength, and potential OTHERS/BTC bottom suggests favorable conditions for an altcoin surge, though not guaranteed without Bitcoin's cooperation.