4 hours ago
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BULLISH 📈 : Analyst Checkmate sees Bitcoin bottom forming at $60,000
Bitcoin's recent drop to the low-$60,000s has prompted traders to seek a potential floor. On-chain analyst James "Checkmate" Check suggests that Bitcoin has entered "deep value" territory, indicating a shift in risk-reward dynamics.
- Check argues that if Bitcoin is not going to zero, current statistics present an asymmetric opportunity post-selloff.
- He emphasizes a probabilistic outlook rather than declaring a definitive bottom.
- He estimates over 50% chance of having set a meaningful low, with about 15-20% odds for a new all-time high in 2026 without major macro changes.
- Approximately $7.5 billion in ETF outflows occurred during the drawdown, not necessarily indicating structural failure.
- Check criticizes relying on the four-year halving cycle as a timing tool, advocating for observing investor behavior instead.
- He predicts market revisits to the low, typically forming through multiple capitulation phases and subsequent "time pain."
- Identifies key resistance at $80,000 tied to the True Market Mean, and sees potential further declines once breached.
- Realized losses reached around $1.5 billion per day during the downturn, comparable to previous cycle lows.
Current market sentiment points towards a downtrend with investors selling every price rise. At press time, BTC trades at $67,788.
