Dec 18, 2025
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Analyst Discusses Evolving Belief in Crypto’s Four-Year Cycle
With two weeks left in 2025, the crypto market's future is uncertain. Bitcoin has declined by 30% from its October peak, trading below its yearly opening price of $93,500. This decline raises questions about the validity of the four-year cycle theory.
The Four-Year Crypto Cycle
- Bitcoin's performance challenges the four-year cycle theory, which lacks a "magical rule" dictating price movements.
- The theory is based on a "memetic consensus," suggesting coordinated buying and selling.
- Initially driven by Bitcoin halving, it has evolved into a broader concept.
- The cycle is compared to faith, widely believed but not empirically observed.
Market Struggles and Investor Sentiment
- Some investors attempt to anticipate cycle movements, increasing sell pressure in 2025.
- This behavior indicates a weakening of the consensus, leading to uncertainty.
- Cathie Wood of Ark Invest notes Bitcoin's current "wall of worry."
- Fear persists over a potential corrective year in 2026.
Pseudonym analyst Plur highlights the absence of confidence to buy during upswings, contrasting with past assuredness. He suggests waiting for a new consensus to form, as the previous one appears fractured.
