Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Obsolete, Liquidity Drives Market
Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle is no longer applicable, asserting that macroeconomic liquidity will dictate market movements. In his essay "Long Live the King!" he suggests that policy decisions in Washington and Beijing are fostering a more liquid monetary environment, pushing BTC higher.
Key Points:
- Hayes believes dollar liquidity is the main factor influencing Bitcoin's value, beyond protocol mechanics.
- He links past Bitcoin cycles to changes in dollar and yuan liquidity, rather than halving events.
- The current phase, termed "New World Order," emphasizes liquidity over halving, with US policies injecting large sums into markets.
- The US Treasury's actions and Fed's interest rate cuts suggest an intention to keep money cheap and plentiful.
- China is not expected to significantly impact global fiat creation but won't obstruct it either.
- Liquidity trends, not halvings, are seen as driving Bitcoin's resilience and growth.
- At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $122,147.
