Arthur Hayes Forecasts Bitcoin Could Decline to $90,000–$95,000 Range
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts potential consolidation for Bitcoin, possibly dropping to the $90,000–$95,000 range before a rally driven by US bank-issued stablecoins.
Key points from Hayes' blog post:
- Short-term corrections may create buying opportunities.
- The US Treasury faces challenges due to record debt issuance, necessitating new liquidity sources.
- Regulated stablecoins could convert retail deposits into demand for Treasury bills.
- This process may inject liquidity similar to quantitative easing without Federal Reserve intervention.
Stablecoin Regulation Progresses
Growing support for stablecoin regulation includes the recent passage of the GENIUS Act in the Senate.
Hayes highlights that this regulatory clarity may enable banks to seamlessly convert deposits into stablecoins. He estimates that moving a portion of the $17 trillion in US bank deposits into stablecoins could generate around $6.8 trillion in new Treasury debt demand, potentially boosting liquidity for risk assets like Bitcoin.
"Quid Pro Stablecoin" discusses how US banks adopting stablecoins can provide $6.8 trillion of buying power for treasuries.https://t.co/QHqgZAPv0J
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) July 3, 2025
An Opportunity Before the Next Leg Up?
Hayes maintains a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin, predicting over $1 million by 2028 but warns of short-term volatility as traders take profits and await further signals from the Federal Reserve.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $109,789, reflecting a 1.85% daily gain with a 20% increase in 24-hour trading volume. After reaching $112,000 in May, Bitcoin has mostly consolidated between $100,000–$110,000.
BTC 4-hour price chart | Source: Trading View