Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Growth Amid US Oil Suppression and GDP Boost

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, suggests that the US control over Venezuelan oil is influenced by electoral strategies rather than geopolitics. He argues this strategy, which involves boosting nominal growth and capping energy costs, is favorable for Bitcoin and high-beta cryptocurrencies.

Hayes claims US political decisions are driven by economic factors like inflation, especially in food and energy.
The "10% rule" states that if gasoline prices rise by 10% or more before elections, it shifts government control.
He posits two market regimes: one with both GDP/credit and oil rising, and another with GDP/credit up but oil stable or declining.

Impact on Bitcoin

Hayes believes Bitcoin's price isn't directly affected by energy costs due to its mining structure.
Oil price influences political decisions on money printing, indirectly affecting Bitcoin prices.
He cites past events where political pressure led to abrupt policy changes, impacting markets.

According to Hayes, an increase in dollar liquidity will drive Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies higher. His fund, Maelstrom, is positioned for high risk with a focus on privacy coins like Zcash. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was priced at $93,841.

Bitcoin price chart