Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin’s Rally Conditions Mirror November 2022
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and now leading the Maelstrom fund, suggests that Bitcoin may experience another sixfold increase similar to its rise from late 2022 to early 2025. Speaking on the “Forward Guidance” podcast, he notes that the current macroeconomic environment resembles that of November 2022.
Key Insights from Hayes
- The US Treasury, not the Federal Reserve, is the central force driving Bitcoin's potential rise.
- Hayes points to $2.5 trillion printed by Yellen through bill issuance as a form of stealth quantitative easing.
- He links the recent turbulence in bond and equity markets to the Trump administration’s tariff policies, which are likely to lead to increased money creation.
- If tariffs reduce the current-account gap, foreign demand for US stocks will decrease, pushing investors toward Bitcoin.
- Hayes anticipates a decline in "US-tech exceptionalism" alongside a stronger structural bid for Bitcoin.
- He raises concerns about Japan's financial dynamics; a stronger yen may prompt Japanese investors to sell Treasuries, impacting yields.
- Historically, spikes in bond-market volatility trigger Fed responses, which could benefit Bitcoin indirectly.
- Comparing the situation today with November 2022, he emphasizes the potential for significant upward movement in Bitcoin prices.
At the time of reporting, BTC was priced at $92,559.
