Arthur Hayes Invests in MSTR, Metaplanet, Zcash Amid Bitcoin Liquidity Shift

Arthur Hayes anticipates a liquidity rebound in 2026, focusing on Bitcoin's potential recovery. He attributes Bitcoin's weak performance in 2025 to dollar-credit issues rather than crypto narratives.

Hayes is investing in Strategy (MSTR), Japan’s Metaplanet, and Zcash (ZEC), expecting US dollar liquidity to increase.
He views 2025 as a challenging year for cross-asset comparisons, with Bitcoin behaving predictably under tightening conditions while gold and Nasdaq 100 performed differently due to other factors.
Gold's demand is driven by sovereign distrust of US Treasury exposure, not retail enthusiasm.
AI trade policies from the US and China have influenced Nasdaq's decoupling from dollar liquidity trends.
Three channels are key to his 2026 outlook: Fed balance sheet growth via Reserve Management Purchases, bank credit creation, and lower mortgage rates through policy-driven MBS demand.
Quantitative tightening ended in late 2025, allowing new liquidity measures to expand the balance sheet.
Trump-backed directives may reduce mortgage rates, boosting housing-related wealth effects and credit.

Hayes aims to capture upside convexity if Bitcoin prices rise, preferring corporate balance sheets over derivatives for leverage. He sees value in Strategy and Metaplanet relative to their currency valuations and expects them to outperform Bitcoin if it surpasses $110,000.

Continued accumulation of Zcash is noted, with Hayes optimistic about future product developments despite developer departures at Electric Coin Company.

At the time of writing, MSTR is trading at $179.33.

MSTR price chart