Mar 4, 2026
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BEARISH 📉 : Bitcoin’s Next Cycle Bottom Predicted Below $40,000
Bitcoin's market cycles frequently follow technical structures, with analysts suggesting these patterns indicate an upcoming price bottom below $40,000.
Pattern Memory and Bitcoin’s Retracement History
- Market analyst Lisa N Edwards highlights Bitcoin's pattern memory, where historical trading behaviors repeat across cycles.
- Bitcoin's past cycles ended near specific Fibonacci retracement levels, with durable bottoms forming before new bull phases.
- The 2013 cycle bottomed near the 0.86 Fibonacci level, similar to 2017, while the 2021 cycle bottomed around the 0.786 level.
Where Is The Next Real Bottom?
- If October 2025 was Bitcoin's true cycle high, historical patterns suggest potential bottom ranges for the next cycle.
- Current Fibonacci retracement mapping shows critical zones: 0.618 at $57,000-$58,000, aligning with the Weekly 200 Moving Average.
- Deeper retracement levels are more consistent with history, with 0.786 near $39,000 (monthly 100-moving average) and 0.86 around $31,000.
- These levels have historically defined major cycle bottoms, indicating a long-term low between $39,000 and $31,000 if October 2025 is the peak.
- Speculation of a drop to $20,000 contradicts historical cycle behavior based on pattern-memory analysis.
