10 hour ago
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BEARISH 📉 : Bitcoin Faces Further Downside Before Reaching Market Bottom
Bitcoin's Current Market Situation
- Bitcoin is struggling to stabilize around the $75,000 mark amid broader market weakness.
- Volatility has decreased, but confidence among traders remains low with thin liquidity.
- The market is searching for equilibrium rather than indicating a clear reversal.
Cap Loss Ratio and Market Analysis
- The Cap Loss Ratio compares Bitcoin's Realized Cap to Market Cap to assess structural stress across the network.
- Historical spikes in this ratio coincide with maximum pessimism and market bottoms.
- The current Cap Loss Ratio suggests further downside is necessary before reaching a full market reset.
- Final capitulation might occur when the ratio is between 0.1 and 0.2, marking potential long-term entry points.
Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Trends
- Bitcoin is trading near critical support levels after failing to reclaim the $90,000–$95,000 zone.
- The price is below both the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, signaling a corrective phase.
- Despite the medium-term weakness, Bitcoin remains above the upward-sloping 200-week moving average.
- If support at $74,000 fails, a deeper retracement toward the low $60,000s is possible.
- Recovery requires reclaiming the 100-week moving average to return to neutrality.
