NewsBTC
Feb 15, 2026
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BEARISH 📉 : Bitcoin faces potential downside as signals suggest fragile market

Pseudonymous market analyst CoinNiel has analyzed Bitcoin's current market cycle, noting that it trades around $69,000 after retesting the $70,000 resistance. This follows a consolidation phase post an aggressive sell-off in late January/early February when prices dipped to $60,000.

Market Cycle Analysis

  • CoinNiel compares the current cycle with the third halving cycle, focusing on distribution, capitulation, and accumulation metrics.
  • The Distribution Signal, indicating smart money selling, is declining, suggesting reduced selling pressure but also a fragile market with less participation from large holders.
  • Historical patterns show a decline in the Distribution Signal after a double top formation, followed by falling prices and rising Capitulation and Accumulation Signals.
  • Bitcoin hit a cycle bottom at $15,000 before the Accumulation Signal began trending downwards, indicating stabilization for potential reversal.

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Currently, the Accumulation Signal is at $54,000, while Bitcoin is priced at $69,000. Historically, these values converge at the cycle low, leaving room for growth. CoinNiel predicts a crossing above $60,000 will signal stabilization and a potential reversal.

Current Price Overview

  • Bitcoin is valued at $68,974 with a 5.14% daily gain.
  • Daily trading volume decreased by 9.6%, amounting to $41.68 billion.
  • Monthly loss stands at 29.25%, indicating negative price action during this period.
  • CryptoQuant anticipates further downside to around $55,000, last reached in 2024.

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