9 hour ago
0 0
BEARISH 📉 : Bitcoin Bear Market Expected to Persist Until Q3 2026
Bitcoin's price dip below $75,000 has reignited discussions about the bear market's duration. According to CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, indicators suggest continued weakness, potentially prolonging the bear market for months.
Key Insights
- CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index is at zero, indicating extreme bearish sentiment. This index uses 10 metrics covering on-chain valuation, liquidity, and market data.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted to net selling since Q4, with significant outflows in January, affecting demand.
- The Coinbase premium, representing US demand, remains negative, further supporting the bearish outlook.
- Stablecoin liquidity has stalled, impacting market-wide liquidity conditions.
- The one-year average funding rate trend shows declining long exposure interest, suggesting less confidence in a bullish reversal.
Technical Indicators
- Bitcoin's one-year moving average acts as resistance after being breached in November, resembling early 2022 patterns.
- Resistance levels are set around $89,000 and $79,000, with potential support targets at $70,000 and $56,000.
Moreno advises acknowledging the bear market status and cautions against mistaking price rallies for bull market beginnings. He suggests that a credible market bottom could emerge around Q3 2026 if demand and liquidity metrics improve.
At the time of reporting, BTC traded at $75,041.
