BEARISH 📉 : Bitcoin Breaks Key Levels, Signals Deeper Bear Market Progression

On-chain analytics firm Checkonchain suggests that the recent Bitcoin decline may indicate a deeper bear market rather than a final capitulation.

Bitcoin's Key On-Chain Levels Breached

Bitcoin has fallen below two significant on-chain cost basis levels: the ETF Cost Basis and the True Market Mean.
The ETF Cost Basis reflects the average inflow price of US spot ETFs, which Bitcoin had stayed above since mid-2024 until this breach.
The True Market Mean tracks the average buying price of the economically active BTC supply; its breach puts many active investors in a net unrealized loss for the first time since 2023.

Checkonchain notes that while there is market pain, data indicates deeper bear market progression:

Spot ETFs have seen negative netflows, but not at panic exodus levels typically seen at cycle ends.
On-chain losses have increased, but are not yet reflective of true capitulation.
Futures market data shows traders attempting to catch the bottom, leading to mass liquidations, suggesting durable lows are unlikely.

Recent futures trading activities resulted in $50 million in long Bitcoin bets being liquidated as prices fluctuated between $79,000 and under $76,500. In total, $185 million in long positions were flushed from the cryptocurrency market.

BTC Price

Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,100, marking a 14% decline over the past week.