14 hour ago
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BEARISH 📉 : Bitcoin Faces Growing Unrealized Losses, No Capitulation Yet
Bitcoin struggles to regain the $80,000 level amid ongoing selling pressure and market uncertainty. Attempts to rebound lack strong follow-through, indicating a potential structural shift rather than a short-term correction.
- Bitcoin entered a bear cycle in October 2025 after peaking at $125,000.
- Unrealised losses have increased from 7% to 22% as prices fell from $95,000 to near $78,000.
- The LTH/STH SOPR Ratio has dropped around 40% from its peak, reflecting compressed profitability among long-term holders.
This suggests Bitcoin is experiencing mid-cycle stress without full capitulation, as seen in past bear markets.
Profit Compression Without Capitulation Signals
- The LTH/STH SOPR Ratio provides insights into loss absorption between long-term and short-term holders.
- The ratio has fallen to around 1.13 from a peak of 1.85, indicating reduced profitability but still above the critical 1.0 threshold.
- A drop below 1.0 would signal capitulation, while recovery toward 1.3–1.4 would show renewed confidence.
Bitcoin Stabilizes After Sharp Sell-Off
- 12-hour chart shows Bitcoin under structural pressure despite stabilization attempts around $78,000.
- BTC remains below key moving averages, confirming a broader bearish trend.
- Resistance is now evident in the $88,000–$90,000 region, capping upside efforts.
- Sustained bid absorption or higher-timeframe demand is not yet apparent.
Downside risks persist unless BTC reclaims and holds above the $82,000–$85,000 area.