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3 hours ago
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BEARISH 📉 : Bitcoin hits year-to-date low amid heavy fund outflows

Bitcoin Market Update:

  • Bitcoin fell to a year-to-date low of $74,500, marking a 38% decline from its peak.
  • Global crypto exchange-traded products experienced significant outflows, particularly from US spot ETFs.
  • The two-year rolling MVRV z-score reached a record low, indicating possible undervaluation and distressed pricing.

Market Sentiment and Activity:

  • Sentiment indicators suggest widespread selling; the MVRV z-score is at its lowest, signaling potential buying opportunities.
  • Despite negative funding rates, spot market data shows net aggressive buying as Bitcoin rebounded toward approximately $79,420.
  • Open interest did not increase significantly, implying more spot buying than leveraged positions.

Capitulation and Liquidations:

  • Approximately $2 billion in long Bitcoin positions were liquidated across derivatives markets.
  • Short positions near higher price levels around $85,000 could lead to short-covering if Bitcoin rises, potentially fueling a bounce.

Support and Potential Upside:

  • Low valuation metrics combined with buying interest could create an asymmetric trade for those accepting volatility.
  • Historically, dips into recent RSI zones have led to about 10% rebounds since August 2023, although outcomes vary.

Institutional Flows and Future Outlook:

  • Major products like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and iShares Bitcoin Trust reported significant outflows.
  • On-chain and spot-volume indicators suggest bargain hunting might have begun, though volatility remains a concern.