BEARISH 📉 : Wintermute Reports Brutal Bitcoin Crash and $2.7 Billion Liquidations

Wintermute Market Update: Bitcoin Crash Analysis

Bitcoin's price fell below $80,000, reaching around $60,000 before stabilizing at low $70,000.
The crash erased gains since Donald Trump's election victory in November 2024, with over $2.7 billion in leveraged positions liquidated.
BlackRock’s IBIT ETF saw more than $10 billion in trading volume during the downturn.
Three main catalysts identified:
- Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair altered monetary policy expectations.
- Disappointing earnings from large tech firms, such as a 10% drop in Microsoft shares.
- A 40% plunge in silver prices after reaching $121.
Selling pressure was structural; Coinbase premium remained negative, indicating sustained selling by US investors.
US counterparties were heavy sellers, reinforced by ETF redemptions.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin has faded, with $6.2 billion in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs since November.
ETF sponsors selling spot Bitcoin into falling markets creates a negative feedback loop.
Derivatives markets show fragility; IBIT and Deribit account for half of crypto options market.
AI is attracting significant global capital, impacting other asset classes, including crypto.
Expected conditions for a Bitcoin recovery include:
- Positive Coinbase premium
- Reversal to ETF inflows
- Stabilization of derivatives market basis rates

Bitcoin