Bitcoin Reaches $120,000; 63% Chance of $125,000 by Year-End
Analysts had predicted Bitcoin would hit $200,000 this year; however, revised forecasts show adjusted targets amid ongoing market conditions.
Recent Market Movements
- Bitcoin recently surpassed the $120,000 mark, a key resistance level.
- This movement coincides with softer private payrolls data and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Fed, with a 99% probability for a quarter-point reduction on October 29.
Historical Q4 Performance
- Bitcoin has historically shown strong performance in Q4, with an average return of 85% from 2013 to 2024.
- Notable past increases include 168% in 2020, 215% in 2017, and 480% in 2013.
Key Months for Bitcoin Price
- October and November are significant for Bitcoin, with historical returns of 22% and 46%, respectively.
- Current predictions suggest a 63% chance of reaching $125,000 by year-end.
- The likelihood of reaching $130,000 by early 2026 is estimated at 47%, and $140,000 at 32%.
- Chances of hitting $150,000 this year are 22%, and just 5% for $200,000.
Market sentiment has shifted since August, with a small probability of Bitcoin falling below $70,000 (6%) or even $50,000 (2%).