Bitcoin Approaches $140K While Bitfinex Analysts Warn of Momentum Fade
Bitcoin recently surged past $107,000 with a 13% increase in trading volume. Analysts suggest the cryptocurrency could aim for $140,000, but challenges lie ahead.
Long-Term Holders' Profit Dynamics
- Unrealized profits for long-term holders (LTH) have decreased, nearing levels seen during the October 2024 correction.
- Current average unrealized profit stands at around 220%, compared to previous highs of 300% and 350%.
- The realized price for LTH is $39,000, indicating most remain profitable unless a significant price surge occurs.
Market Momentum Analysis by Bitfinex
- Bitfinex analysts report waning momentum after a nearly three-month rally, with Bitcoin rising over 41% from April lows.
- On-chain data shows reduced spot buying pressure and increased profit-taking among short-term holders who bought under $80,000.
- Current order flow suggests a consolidation phase rather than another rapid price increase.
Institutional Interest and Macro Support
- US Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $4.75 billion over 15 consecutive days as of June 30.
- A recent $2.2 billion inflow into Bitcoin ETFs ranks among the top weeks since inception, indicating strong institutional interest.
- The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision on July 30 may impact market dynamics, though only a 19% chance of a cut is projected.
Technical Analysis: Fibonacci Levels
- Bitcoin is currently near the 0.786 Fibonacci level at approximately $108,000, a critical resistance zone.
- Key Fibonacci targets if this level breaks include $118,275, $130,538, and $142,801.
- Support levels are identified at $105,000 and the psychological barrier at $100,000.
- On-Balance Volume (OBV) remains steady, but the MACD indicates potential short-term weakness due to signs of a bearish crossover.